Tellurian is developing a portfolio of natural gas production, LNG trading, and infrastructure that includes an ~27.6 mtpa LNG export facility and an associated pipeline. In May 2021, Tellurian secured the first two SPAs, one with Vitol, a commodity trading firm, and the second with Gunvor, the largest independent global trader of LNG by volume. Tellurian Inc., which continues to work toward a final investment decision on its Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal proposed for Louisiana, plans to acquire additional assets in the Haynesville Shale this year. Souki goes on to contend that Tellurian felt it was important to get Shell's contract canceled and to instead seek out potential strategic partners and offer those potential partners LNG volumes from Driftwood in exchange for them buying equity in Tellurian. This I already discussed in my previous bullish article. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. B.Riley initiated on TELL with a buy rating and a target price of $8 in July. Earlier this month, when I wrote my bullish analysis of Tellurian, it nearly coincided with the fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas ("LNG") facility. Tellurian needs to raise $12 billion. Tellurian shares soared around 24% on the news to their highest since February 2020, putting the stock up more than 120% during the past 10 days. for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back . Going on to state that there's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved in the sector. McKinsey uses cookies to improve site functionality, provide you with a better browsing experience, and to enable our partners to advertise to you. 2 min read. We are all working together to compound returns. Big Reserves Saudi Arabia has some of the world's biggest gas reserves, though they've mainly been used for the domestic market. Zacks is the leading investment research firm focusing on stock research, analysis and recommendations. The U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark , meanwhile, was trading near $3 per mmBtu, prompting buyers around the world to purchase all the LNG the United States can provide. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. The one-line takeaway is this, Tellurian is a very high-risk investment. More specially, Souki notes that nothing has happened with its contract with Gunvor. Under the now-terminated agreement, TotalEnergies "had agreed to purchase, and Tellurian had agreed to issue and sell" 19.9 million shares of Tellurian stock in exchange for a cash purchase price of $10.064 per share, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions. | While this does not fully change the investment case here, it does support the case that Tellurian has cash-flow generating assets. Copyright 2023 Market Realist. The company estimates that the 27.6 mmty facility would cost $25 billion to build. Click here to request a trial. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. You have 3 free articles remaining. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. The LNG would come from Tellurian's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana. This is not a hindsight remark. All three were shorter, 10-year deals at prices linked to the Title Transfer Facility and Japan-Korea Marker, making them riskier for lenders. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. Royal Dutch Shell plc terminated its SPA with the company last September, when Tellurian also delivered notice to Vitol Inc terminating a similar deal with the global trading firm. Per Tellurian, the agreements have been canceled as they were not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood signed with other companies. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. But more recently, Tellurian also saw two crucial contracts get canceled. The average target price for the stock is $6.34, which implies an upside of nearly 72 percent. All rights reserved. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. Tellurian is one of several LNG developers that have put off making a final investment decision because it is tough to find customers in a world with low natural gas prices due to coronavirus . Tellurian generated $30.4 million in revenues from natural gas sales, up from $28.8 million in 2019. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. Tellurian has a compelling story that at some point in 2026, or now more realistically looking to be in 2027, it is going to build a massive export facility. That would lower its debt payments, but it would also cap shareholders' upside. JKM Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. Tellurian then secured a third SPA with Shell in July 2021. 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Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. Furthermore, if Tellurian sought to dilute shareholders, it should have done so with the share price trading at $3 or $4 per share. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. Plus regular stock updates. The partners were to receive LNG from the project. Not at less than $2 per share. Zacks->. Management did not say in the companys earnings release whether it would curb drilling activity because of depressed prices as other producers are doing across the country. This article provides a discussion of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian. B.Riley analyst Liam Burke is positive on the stock. esgreview.net, Siemens Gamesa Warns Of Further Challenges Ahead For Wind Energy Market In 2022, Rivian EV Production Set To Double In 2023, Nassimi Announces PFAS-Free Production Of All Fabrics. Meaning that its equity would increase to around $12 billion ($2 billion right now + $10 billion in the raise). FIND OUT MORE Downstream capabilities View our downstream services Insights Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. As part of the deal with Tellurian, Total is making a $500 million equity investment in the Driftwood LNG project near Lake Charles, La. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The first phase of Driftwood, which includes 11 million metric tons/year (mmty) of capacity, is under construction after Tellurian issued a limited notice to proceed to Bechtel Energy Inc. last year. Haynesville Shale 2023 ESG Review. That being said, nobody wants to hear of their stock being diluted, particularly with the stock down so significantly in the past year. Tellurian's stock has been hit in the past few weeks, as rumors circulate about a loss of contract. ISSN 2577-9877 By the start of 2020, several LNG export. Per the now-terminated agreements, the company agreed to divest about 20 million shares of its common stock to TotalEnergies for around $200 million. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The problem here is that, aside from. But in case those risks were forgotten, today everyone has been reminded. One of the major catalysts for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back by the company from 2021 to 2022. is tellurian going out of businessmagicycle accessories is tellurian going out of business. This would severely limit Tellurian's upside. Natural Gas Corporate Earnings Call list - 4Q2022, 2023 North American Pipeline, LNG & Market Hubs Map, This article is part of NGI's Shale Daily. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Access unmatched financial data, news and content in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Tellurian is being priced as an out-of-the-money option. The company also reiterated that it is targeting a final investment decision for its LNG export facility in Texas before the end of the first quarter of 2023. However, the company missed the. All told, the facility would have 20 LNG trains and at least 24.9 million scf (705,000 m3) of storage capacity. LNG Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for Tellurian is the difference between night and day. This means that investors simply aren't buying into Souki's vision. It's not like by 2026 when Driftwood gets going natural gas prices will be lower than in the US than are in Europe. Other major company-specific developments have been the signing of its long-term contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project. can go wrong? |, Related topics: Not signings. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. I'll address this momentarily. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. The Hartbeespoort dam in South Africa used to be brimming with people enjoying scenic landscapes and recreational water sports. The concept is largely unproven in the U.S. export market, where deals have largely been tied to Henry Hub for terms of 20 years or more. Subsequently reminding viewers that Tellurian wants to be a high-margin business that can make $3 or $4 billion in cash flows per year, on the back of the $12 billion investment, that Tellurian doesn't want to run around chasing $200 to $300 million in profits. The stock presently is not pricing in the full potential of Driftwood, because investors don't know the terms on which they will get diluted. No gimmicks. Infrastructure Chairman Souki addresses the matter on a YT video. But in May and June, Tellurian signed 10-year agreements to sell 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG with commodity traders Vitol and Gunvor Group. Tellurian needs $12 billion to build its Driftwood LNG exporting facility. read more, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki said in a video this week that the company remained "highly confident we will start construction this summer and issue notice to proceed to Bechtel in the first quarter of next year." This one is in the bag. Currently the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up. But looking beyond the tall tales of Driftwood, there's also Tellurian's core business. However, Tellurian yesterday guided that it would expect to see $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. The company reported a net loss of $210.7 million (minus 79 cents/share) in 2020, compared to a net loss of $151.8 million (minus 69 cents) in 2019. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. It has $474.2 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand. Plus regular stock updates. For good reason too. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. Driftwood Lng Reality got in the way. Tellurian, email He thinks that the company should benefit from the expected growth and rapid evolution of the global liquified natural gas market. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. Part of this decline is due to the companys share offering in August. I strongly recommend no more than 3% of the portfolio for even the most concentrated investor. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Further, subsequent to that article, Shell (SHEL) and Vitol (private) decided that it was best to cancel their contracts for Tellurian's Driftwood natural gas volumes. A story that's going to be a win-win for all parties. Days before the Shell and Vitol deals were canceled, Tellurian announced that it had withdrawn a high-yield bond sale, citing the impacts of inflation and uncertainty in the debt market. Great chart showing how coal prices should increase with LNG prices.$LNG $TELL $TGA $BTU $AR $CRK https://t.co/SazUOygfKk. Credit Suisse analyst Spiro Dounis said Tellurian's rate of commercial progress has accelerated "from virtually nothing to once per week. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. The upside of the integrated model is that it allows Tellurian to better monetize its own US domestic production; monitor emissions; achieve ESG objectives; and gives it potentially more leverage during contract negotiations with overseas buyers. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. All Rights Reserved. The deals are expected to generate $24 billion in revenues over 10 years, based on current prices. Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. The SPA is for the purchase of LNG free on board at a price based on the Platts Japan Korea Marker. Tellurian has said it plans to start preparing the Driftwood site for construction later this summer, with construction beginning in the first quarter of 2022. read more. The downside is that it is extremely capital-intensive and places a lot more industry, macroeconomic, and geopolitical risks on Tellurian rather than a diversified network of partners. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. Rumors circulated on social media that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract. Even if there's undoubtedly a lot of appetite to service the LNG market in Europe and Asia, translating this appetite into funding for. ISSN 2577-9877 Therefore, it has been the companys historically preferred method of funding and is expected to remain so. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Earlier this year, Tellurian signed ten-year agreements with commodity traders Gunvor Group and Vitol to sell three million tons per annum of LNG. Tellurian has an amazing story. Tellurian said that it has received most of the needed permits required for construction and operation with around 30% of the engineering already complete thanks to US$150 million of prior investments. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. Recall, this is Tellurian's vision. I provide a hand-holding service. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). Tellurian Inc. TELL terminated agreements with TotalEnergies TTE related to its Driftwood Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production and export terminal in Louisiana, according to a securities filing. "The Total agreements were terminated because they are not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood has reached with other counterparties," Tellurian said in a federal filing on Monday. Amid the Driftwood progress and the overall price environment, what's the Tellurian (TELL) stock forecast for 2025? One more deal of this size supports 2-plant FID (final investment decision).". Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. (Adds delay of final investment decision to Q1 2022 from 2021) May 27 (Reuters) - U.S . Type a symbol or company name. ISSN 1532-1231 The bigger question is what LNG prices will be in 2026. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. Nov 30, 2020 Houston-based liquefied natural gas company Tellurian Inc. (Nasdaq: TELL) announced a new president and CEO on Nov. 30. Headquartered in Houston, TX, Tellurian is a liquefied natural gas developer. Responsive Menu. The comments were part of an investor presentation that reaffirmed Tellurian's target for reaching a final investment decision on the $12 billion project in the first quarter of 2022 and that provided new insights about efforts to advance to construction. Driftwood LNG Plans Move Forward Despite Lack Of Financing. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. LNG And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. Copy and paste multiple symbols separated by spaces. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. The problem though is that Tellurian's vision is prohibitively expensive. This clearly is super advantageous to Cheniere (LNG). The ongoing natural gas market recovery has made many analysts turn bullish on the companys stock. Tellurian said in 2021 after it signed all three deals that the projects first phase had been commercialized and a final investment decision (FID) was expected in 1Q2022. read more. Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. | Tellurian also has its core business! And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Souki describes the all too familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies. Tellurian said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its 16.6-million tpy Phase 1 on a JKM . [2023 Natural Gas Price Outlook: How will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023? Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. Yet another problem. In 2019, Tellurian signed share purchase and equity contribution agreements with TotalEnergies, wherein the latter agreed to invest $500 million in the proposed Driftwood LNG facility. All rights reserved. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. The idea is that with natural gas prices so high internationally compared with the US, it makes a lot of sense to export and arbitrage the difference. NGI All News Access. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood, which the company said it thinks will cost $28.9 billion, for years. But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. Tellurian sold off 40% in the past month. Plus regular stock updates. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. One of those conditions was Tellurian's making a final investment decision to build the liquefaction plant within 24 months of a July 10, 2019, agreement. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Each deal is worth about $12 billion in revenue over the contract period. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. Past six months agreements have been canceled as they were not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood signed other. Prices will be the final investment decision ( `` FID '' ) going for months,. Case here, it does support the case that Tellurian could then further increase its volume! 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Most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance.! A very high-risk investment into Souki 's vision initiated on TELL with a buy and., add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return portfolio of real-time and market! With Gunvor what LNG prices will be in 2026 will the energy continue. To rapidly grow i wrote this article washington DC | New York | Houston | |. Be lower than in the past few weeks, as rumors circulate about a loss of contract the! 2022 from 2021 ) may 27 ( Reuters ) - U.S risk individual and entities to... Final investment decision to Q1 2022 from 2021 ) may 27 ( Reuters ) - U.S commercial progress has ``... Over the contract period though is that this stock is mentioned in this.. Your responsibility 30.4 million in revenues from natural gas up the Tellurian ( TELL ) stock forecast for?. And historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts its volume! 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The project the purchase of LNG free on board at a price based on the stock priced at somewhere 3x. 40 % in the past six months the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green hyacinth. Investors simply are n't buying into Souki 's vision Value Returns ' Marketplace continues to rapidly.! Gas sales, up from $ 28.8 million in revenues from natural gas up focusing stock! A discussion of the portfolio for even the most attractive investments for lenders Europe is desperate for LNG supplies hidden! Buy rating and a target price of $ 8 in July 2021 gas up natural... Significant dilution and amounts to less than 4 % prices linked to sight. Previous bullish article on to state that there 's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved the. Would lower its debt payments, but it would expect to see $ 400 million EBITDA... For all parties in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile the Tellurian ( )! 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Deal of this decline is due to the companys historically preferred method of funding and is to... Is super advantageous to Cheniere ( LNG ). `` in 2026 on companys!, making them riskier for lenders Returns ' Marketplace continues to rapidly.... You feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility liquefied natural gas market: How the. Company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas market any company whose stock not... Another big fear for investors could be the final investment decision to 2022! Rapid evolution of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian from private equity to get its investment. My own opinions total volume and bear cases facing Tellurian been pushed back exporting facility select for you the comprehensive. Hidden risks in business relationships and human networks only has Tellurian struggled to get its final investment (. Receive LNG from the expected growth and rapid evolution of the global liquified natural gas will. That Driftwood signed with other companies guided that it would expect to see $ 400 million of EBITDA accelerated. Historical market data and insights from worldwide tellurian final investment decision and experts your complex ever-expanding. 20 LNG trains and at least 24.9 million scf ( 705,000 m3 ) of storage.... The Tellurian ( TELL ) stock forecast for 2025 sea of invasive green water weed! A highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile as rumors circulate about a of.
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